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After the bubble burst: How homebuying fared in Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Juan Capistrano

by in News

Homebuying in inland South County — including Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita and San Juan Capistrano — rose 114 percent in 10 years.

In the first quarter of 2008, housing’s bubble was bursting and it was just months before the global financial collapse that led to the Great Recession. This three-month period still stands as Orange County’s slowest-selling start to any year in CoreLogic’s database that dates to 1988.

ICYMI: O.C. housing’s rebound from the crash

We decided to see how neighborhood housing markets fared since, comparing homebuying’s start of 2008 vs. this year’s first three months.

CoreLogic found these 14 trends in 8 ZIP codes covered by the Orange County Register’s Saddleback News weekly, …

1. Purchases: Home sales in this period totaled 1,342 vs. 626 a decade ago, a gain of 114.4 percent.

2. Who’s up: Prices increased in 7 of the 8 ZIPs as sales rose in 8 ZIPs.

3. Countywide: $710,000 median selling price, up 38.4 percent. Orange County sales totaled 7,800 residences, existing and new, vs. 4,419 a decade ago, a gain of 76.5 percent. Prices rose in 79 out of 83 Orange County ZIPs and sales were up in 76 out of 83 ZIPs.

Here is how prices and sales moved at the community level …

4. Mission Viejo 92691: $680,000 median, up 39.2 percent. Price rank? 47th of 83. Sales of 158 vs. 87 a decade ago, a gain of 81.6 percent.

5. Mission Viejo 92692: $695,000 median, up 31.9 percent. Price rank? No. 43 of 83. Sales of 178 vs. 77 a decade ago, a gain of 131.2 percent.

6. Lake Forest 92630: $739,500 median, up 76.1 percent. Price rank? No. 34 of 83. Sales of 260 vs. 83 a decade ago, a gain of 213.3 percent.

7. Foothill Ranch 92610: $570,000 median, down 0.9 percent. Price rank? No. 65 of 83. Sales of 38 vs. 26 a decade ago, a gain of 46.2 percent.

8. Rancho Santa Margarita 92688: $575,000 median, up 42.0 percent. Price rank? No. 63 of 83. Sales of 157 vs. 119 a decade ago, a gain of 31.9 percent.

9. Trabuco/Coto 92679: $982,500 median, up 24.3 percent. Price rank? No. 12 of 83. Sales of 131 vs. 75 a decade ago, a gain of 74.7 percent.

10. Ladera Ranch/Rancho Mission Viejo 92694: $710,500 median, up 15.5 percent. Price rank? No. 40 of 83. Sales of 280 vs. 89 a decade ago, a gain of 214.6 percent.

11. San Juan Capistrano 92675: $892,500 median, up 44.2 percent. Price rank? No. 20 of 83. Sales of 140 vs. 70 a decade ago, a gain of 100.0 percent.

Let’s toss in three more countywide trends …

12. Single-family homes resales: 4,614 Orange County sales vs. 2,853 a decade ago, a gain of 61.7 percent. Median: $760,000 — a rise of 32.2 in the period.

13. Condo resales: 2,097 sales vs. 1,080 a decade ago, a gain of 94.2 percent. Median: $495,000 — a rise of 32.0 in the period.

14. New homes: 1,089 sales vs. 487 a decade ago, a gain of 123.6 percent. Median: $873,000 — a rise of 63.8 in the period.