Southern California Republicans are avoiding ‘the T-word’
His last name has five letters, but Republicans running for office in Southern California are as reluctant to mention “Donald Trump” as they are to drop one of the few still forbidden four-letter words in public.
It’s a reality of the double political life many candidates on both sides of the political aisle are leading in 2018.
In a state that Hillary Clinton carried by 30 points in the 2016 election, Trump remains very unpopular. Two thirds of the state’s voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, according to an April poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
But that number doesn’t take into account a sub-group of voters GOP candidates care about very much — Republican voters. Within that cohort, Trump holds a robust 80 percent approval rating.
That means Trump is not without influence in the Golden State. His endorsement helped Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox advance out of the June primary.
It also means GOP candidates seen as anti-Trump risk angering Republican voters.
Still, even in an era in which elections are won by motivating the base, Republican candidates are more likely to talk about repealing the state’s gas-tax hike than they are to bring up America’s 45th president.
“President Trump is like an outcast relative that most (Southern California) Republican family members will not mention by name when at public gatherings or in their campaign ads,” said Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne.
Trump remains a topic
Still, GOP candidates are finding ways to tout Trump with the faithful.
Much like many individual aspects of Obamacare polled well long before the program called “Obamacare” was favored by a majority of Americans (in June, a poll by Quinnipiac University found that 51 percent of registered voters favored keeping Obamacare while 44 percent want it repealed), GOP candidates believe voters support elements of the Trump agenda even if they don’t like the man himself.
“Touting certain Trump administration issues or congressional legislation is another matter,” Godwin said.
“For example, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running television ads in favor of Rep. Steve Knight (R-Palmdale) that emphasize his support for the tax reform bill and claim that all Californians will receive tax cuts.”
That said, the overall push among GOP candidates in the region is to stay mum on Trump.
“Clinton carried most Southern California congressional districts,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. “By talking about Trump in those districts, GOP candidates gain little and risk alienating moderate voters. Their best course is to say the T-word as little as possible and instead focus on local concerns.”
Democrats, of course, use the T-word a lot.
Many are hoping anti-Trump sentiment helps them flip districts held by Reps. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa, and Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Beach, and to take seats being vacated by retiring Reps. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, and Ed Royce, R-Yorba Linda. Clinton carried those districts, which represent parts of Orange County.
Try as GOP candidates might to avoid the president, “Trump occupies all the oxygen in the room, and that’s just the reality,” said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic campaign consultant based in Los Angeles.
“It’s very hard for (GOP candidates) to distance themselves from that.”
Midterm elections usually are at least partially a referendum on the president and his party, and Carrick suggested Democratic candidates hope this year’s voters will follow that pattern.
“They see Democratic control of one house of Congress as control over Trump … I think that’s the big picture that exists and I don’t think there’s a damn thing anybody can do about it.”
A Washington Post/ABC News poll released in September found 60 percent of respondents said they preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress as a check on Trump, rather than a GOP-controlled Congress to support Trump’s agenda.
But that poll was taken before the contentious hearings over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, and many pundits have suggested the showdown has energized GOP voters.
The so-called “generic ballot” results of Oct. 9 from the data tracking website FiveThirtyEight.com showed 49.5 percent of voters favoring a Democrat-controlled House and 41.3 percent favoring a GOP-controlled House.
If GOP candidates are reluctant to talk about Trump away from GOP voters, Democratic candidates have a topic they play up less in mixed audiences, too.
Experts say Democrats run the risk of firing up GOP voters if they’re seen as too willing to impeach Trump. And, indeed, most Democratic House candidates in Southern California are as reluctant to use the “I-word,” as their GOP counterparts are to talk about Trump.
Few will take a firm stand on impeachment, saying they’d prefer to wait until Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation on Russia’s role in the 2016 election wraps up.
“The Democrats have to do more than just be anti-Trump,” said Democrat consultant Carrick. “They have to have an agenda of their own that’s meaningful to people and relates to their everyday life.”
‘Leave him alone’
Southern California politicians’ wide range of Trump views – as well as the reluctance of many politicians to be pinned down on the subject – was evident in responses to a recent survey conducted by Southern California News Group.
In August, a reporter emailed a multiple-choice questionnaire to almost 150 congressional and state legislative officeholders and candidates in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. The survey asked for opinions of Trump’s overall performance as president, his policies, and how he conducts himself and runs his administration.
The survey also asked the politicians, based on what they know and expect of Mueller’s investigation, how likely they are to end up supporting impeachment and removal of Trump from office. And it asked how much they are talking to voters about their opinions of Trump.
Among those who responded, three out of nearly 150 expressed wholehearted support for Trump: Johnny Nalbandian, a Republican who is running against Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank; Assemblyman Steven Choi, R-Irvine, and Henry Nickel, a Republican running for the open 40th Assembly District seat in San Bernardino County.
All said they “strongly approve” of Trump’s overall performance, policies and conduct, and are “very unlikely” to support impeachment. All three said Trump is “just one of many topics” they discuss in their campaigns.
“Please leave him alone for him to do the work for the country, and not wasting his time defending himself,” Choi wrote.
Six expressed complete opposition to Trump:
-State Sen. Kevin de Leon, D-Los Angeles, who is running against U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif.
-Peter Choi, a Democrat running for de Leon’s state Senate seat.
-Assemblywoman Blanca Rubio, D-Baldwin Park.
-Democratic Assembly candidate Gregg Fritchle (running against Assemblyman Phillip Chen, R-Diamond Bar)
-Democratic Assembly candidate Michelle Duman (running against Steven Choi)
-Democratic Assembly candidate Alan Geraci (running against Assemblywoman Marie Waldron, R-Escondido).
No candidate said he or she talks about Trump “more than any other topic.”
Of the 10 candidates in five GOP-held House seats heavily targeted by Democrats, the only one to answer the Trump survey was Gil Cisneros, the Democrat running against Republican Young Kim for Royce’s seat.
Cisneros gave the lowest possible marks for Trump’s performance but declined to answer the question about removing the president from office, explaining that “I feel that it is important to let (Mueller) complete his investigation before we discuss impeachment.”
Only 26 candidates responded to the survey, and it was clear that for some candidates – or their campaign aides – it was a deliberate decision not to. Matt Rexroad, Knight’s campaign consultant, said he didn’t plan to present the survey to the congressman, who is high on Democrats’ target list.
“This is entirely about Trump,” Rexroad said by email.
“We are not responsible for him.”