Southern California housing’s chill: Existing supply surges 28%, homes sit for 6 extra weeks
Southern California’s housing market may be suffering from a case of “be careful what you wish for.”
It wasn’t too long ago real estate pros said a lack of inventory was frustrating home seekers rushing to buy from limited options. In late 2018, there may be too many choices.
House sellers are finding it takes 43 more days to get a home from listing to escrow compared with the same period a year ago, according to one industry benchmark. House hunters have 8,380 more listings to consider vs. a year ago — an increase of 28 percent.
ReportsOnHousing tracks homebuying patterns found in real estate broker networks: supply (active listings); year-to-date increase in supply; demand (new escrows in past 30 days); and “market time” (a measure of selling speed of days it takes a typical listing to enter escrow).
The latest report from Oct. 18 shows 38,015 listings of existing residences in the four-county region covered by the Southern California News Group. That’s 8,380 more houses for sale in a year’s time — or 28 percent. And current supply is 14 percent above the six-year average.
How is the market accepting this surge in supply? It’s balking! Demand — or new escrows — was 10,579, off 3,066 sales contracts in 12 months or down 22 percent. It’s also down 16 percent vs. previous six years.
That dip in demand has cooled the estimated selling pace. Rising supply and falling demand means “market time” rose to 108 days for the typical listing to get to escrow vs. 65 days a year earlier and an average 87 days for this time of year in 2012-2017. Last time SoCal homes moved slower was January 2016!
In the four counties …
Los Angeles County: 37 more days to sell vs. a year ago (100 days total) as supply rose 30 percent.
Orange County: 46 more days (111 days total) as supply rose 40 percent.
Riverside County: 58 more days (124 days total) as supply rose 22 percent.
San Bernardino County: 34 more days (104 days total) as supply rose 21 percent.
The market’s cooling is in line with a broader chill in local economic activity with a pair of regional business-output indexes showing Southern California growth at a 7-year low.