Guess who’s running for Assembly in Orange County? Almost everybody

Challengers, some familiar and some new, already are lining up to compete in 2020 for Orange County’s state Assembly seats, with Republicans hoping to maintain a rare political edge and Democrats hoping to repeat the blue wave that flipped local congressional districts last year.

Republicans hold four of the seven Assembly seats that touch Orange County, and GOP officials believe a combination of well-known candidates and voter frustration with the state’s high tax rates will help them maintain that edge or grow it by a seat, said Matt Fleming, spokesman for the California Republican Party.

Democrats say the trend is moving in the opposite direction.

“The California Republican Party lost nearly every competitive election in the state in 2018,” said Derek Humphrey, a campaign spokesman for Democratic Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris.

“If they think the higher turnout election in 2020 is going to be better for them, then they are seriously underestimating the damage caused by President Trump’s policies.”

Paperwork filed so far shows two local Democrats aren’t yet facing any challengers. Those are Sharon Quirk-Silva, D-Fullerton, who has served three non-consecutive terms in the Assembly representing the heavily blue 65th District in central, northern Orange County, and Tom Daly, D-Anaheim, who represents the even deeper blue 69th District in central county.

In the five contested Assembly seats, candidates are expected to campaign along traditional party lines, with GOP contenders talking up tax relief, public safety and job creation while Democrats are talking about healthcare, the environment and affordable housing.

Democrats vie to flip AD 55

Two-term incumbent Phillip Chen, R-Brea, is expected to face two Democratic competitors in his bid to keep AD 55 red.

The district covers most of northeast Orange County plus strips of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties. While registration in Orange County leans heavily GOP, the district overall is closer, with the GOP holding a 1.5 point advantage over Democrats.

Chen was elected in 2016 with 57.7 percent of the vote and held the seat last year with 54.9 percent. In the Assembly, the commercial real estate manager and former L.A. County health deputy serves as the GOP’s Deputy Whip. He has introduced bills related to criminal justice, transportation and mental health, among others.

One Democrat going after Chen is Andrew Rodriguez, mayor pro tem for the city of Walnut. He’s worked as a land use planner and on several political campaigns, including Cory Booker’s U.S. Senate bid in New Jersey. Another is Michelle Hamilton, who founded a nonprofit that helps combat workplace harassment and inequality. She’s serving a second term as a member of the O.C. Democratic Party Central Committee.

Multiple challenges in AD 68

Steven Choi, R-Irvine, probably will face two Democrats and one Republican in his 2020 bid to hold AD 68. The district runs from Anaheim Hills to Lake Forest, and registration leans red, with GOP voters outnumbering Democrats by about 4.5 percentage points.

Choi’s challengers might be sensing a trend. In 2016, Choi won the seat with more than 60 percent of the vote, but by last year the number was just 53.1 percent.

In the Assembly, the former Irvine mayor serves on committees for higher education and legislative ethics, and he’s introduced bills related to taxes and victims’ rights.

One Democrat challenger is Eugene Fields, a former Register reporter who oversees communications for CAIR-LA, a nonprofit that advocates for Muslim civil liberties, and teaches business communications at Westcliff University in Irvine.

Another Democrat is Melissa Fox, an attorney who specializes in fighting fraud. She’s been on the Irvine City Council since 2016, earning recognition for her work supporting veterans, fighting child abuse and advocating for tighter government spending.

Choi also is expected to face Republican Benjamin Yu, a veteran who is president of a foundation that advocates for Asian-American equality. Yu is calling for tax reductions, school choice and limited government.

Two GOP opponents in AD 74

Freshmen incumbent Petrie-Norris, D-Laguna Beach, could face at least two GOP competitors in her bid to hold  Assembly District 74.

The district runs along the coast from Huntington Beach to Laguna Beach, and includes Costa Mesa and most of Irvine. Registration leans red, with the GOP holding a 4.8 point edge.

The district was a long-time Republican stronghold, but businesswoman Petrie-Norris pulled off a surprise win in November against two-term GOP Assemblyman Matthew Harper, flipping the seat to blue. In the Assembly she’s introduced bills related to coastal protection, renewable energy, healthcare, substance abuse and student debt.

One Republican challenger is Newport Beach Mayor Diane Dixon. The retired communications executive will campaign on local control, public safety and protecting the coastal environment.

Another GOP contender is Kelly Ernby of Huntington Beach, an Orange County deputy district attorney who focuses on environmental law and consumer protection. Ernby, a political newcomer, says he will make “California pro-business, pro-taxpayer and affordable again.”

State GOP spokesman Fleming sees Petrie-Norris as the “most vulnerable” of the OC state representatives.

“She won in a wave,” he said, campaigning alongside Democratic House Reps. Katie Porter and Harley Rouda. Her work in Sacramento, he added, has been more liberal than her constituents want.

Humphrey, spokesman for Petrie-Norris’ campaign, dismissed that claim, saying the assemblywoman has proven herself to be an “independent and effective legislator” who’s “getting things done for… her district.”

Rematch in AD 72

Freshmen incumbent Tyler Diep, R-Westminster, probably will see a familiar competitor in his bid to hang on to AD 72 — Josh Lowenthal, the Democrat he beat in November.

Registration in the north county district, which touches Seal Beach, Huntington Beach and Garden Grove, leans red, with Republicans holding a 2.3 point edge. And Diep, a small business owner and former vice mayor of Westminster, beat Lowenthal by 3.2 points. Since taking office, Diep has introduced bills related to taxes, human trafficking, child abuse and reducing regulations.

Lowenthal — a business executive and the son of Rep. Alan Lowenthal, D-Long Beach — has taken out initial paperwork to re-run against Diep, but he hasn’t yet started campaigning and could not be reached for comment on Tuesday.

Another rematch in AD 73

Three-term incumbent Bill Brough, R-Dana Point, who represents AD 73, also will likely face a rematch.

The district, which covers much of south Orange County, is decidedly red. While the GOP holds only a fractional .03 point edge over Democrats overall in Orange County, the party’s edge in AD 73 is 13.7 points .

Brough first won the seat in 2014, with 67.9 percent of the vote.  By 2018, he was still winning, if less decisively, beating Democrat Scott Rhinehart with 56.2 percent of the vote.

Brough has introduced legislation this session on tax reform, disabled veterans and substance abuse. Before taking office, he was a Dana Point council member and ran a government affairs consulting firm.

So far, Rhinehart is Brough’s only competitor for 2020.

Rhinehart is campaigning on stopping offshore drilling, removing nuclear waste from San Onofre and supporting Medicare for all. He previously ran his own real estate firm and would be the first openly-gay state Assembly or Senate member from Orange County.