Eric Garcetti for president? He’d be a long shot — with reasons for hope

He’s a nice guy, a polished campaigner. He’s the mayor of one of the nation’s biggest cities. He’s also from the nation’s biggest state, a state that’s about to play a larger-than-usual role in his party’s presidential nomination process.

If Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti enters the Democratic race for president in 2020 – and he’s expected to announce a decision soon — all those factors could help him, or just as easily harm him.

That’s the consensus view of 10 political professionals and political scientists who offered their thoughts about Garcetti’s prospects as a presidential candidate. The experts, none of whom has a direct tie to Garcetti, say the 47-year-old L.A. native faces a unique set of pros and cons that would make him a long shot to win but also would give him legitimate reason for optimism.

Personality

Garcetti would satisfy Democratic voters’ wish for a candidate who’s the opposite of President Trump. He has diverse roots (Jewish, Hispanic, with an Italian surname), military experience (in the Naval Reserve) and intellectual chops (as a Rhodes scholar).

“Unlike Trump, he reads books and knows the issues. He can even spell,” said Jack Pitney, professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College and a former Republican National Committee research director.

“(And) he is a genuinely nice person.”

Said Larry Becker, a Cal State Northridge political science professor: “He’s more of a quiet, adult presence, and if voters are looking for an end to the chaos and for someone who cares about pragmatic, progressive governance, he can be a good contrast.”

But the pleasant air of quiet competence that makes Garcetti effective with a solo microphone might not help him to stand out in a Democratic field that could grow to more than 20 before June, when the first primary forums and debates are slated to be held.

“Standing in between (Sen.) Bernie Sanders and (Sen.) Kamala Harris on a debate stage with eight or 10 other candidates, he might actually have to set himself on fire in order to make it into the news coverage,” said Dan Schnur, a professor at USC’s Annenberg Center and a former Republican spokesman and strategist.

The Los Angeles factor

Beyond the fact that no mayor has ever vaulted directly to the U.S. presidency — drink a shot every time you hear that factoid in the months ahead — Garcetti’s experience as L.A. mayor is a mixed bag.

The good news for Garcetti is that, in a Democratic field dominated by senators, being a second-term mayor (and L.A. City Council president before that) makes him one of the few candidates who’s been a chief executive. Los Angeles is the nation’s second biggest city, meaning Garcetti governs one million more people than Bill Clinton did as governor of Arkansas. He could appeal to Americans tired of ideology and partisanship by arguing that mayors must deal pragmatically to solve street-level problems.

The bad news is that mayors have records to defend. Garcetti has local political victories to boast of, including the passage of county and city ballot measures to fund mass-transit and anti-homelessness problems, and bringing the 2028 Summer Olympics to L.A. But the payoff for those victories is years away, while homelessness and freeway traffic jams will be rampant and visible well into 2020.

“I can easily imagine opposition ads showing tent cities and asking, ‘Is L.A. what we want for the country?’ ” said Jeffrey Hernandez, a political science professor at East L.A. College.

Said David Hadley, vice president of the California Republican Party and a former state Assembly member from Torrance: “I’m struggling to see his accomplishments as L.A. mayor that would propel him far into the primaries.”

Garcetti was re-elected in 2017 with 81.4 percent of the vote against 10 little-known opponents.

One other obstacle for the L.A. mayor: He might not even have the distinction of being the only mayor running. Others openly considering a run are Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans, Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg.

The California factor

By moving its 2020 primary from June to Super Tuesday on March 3, California aims to increase its influence on the nominating process. At least four California Democrats hope to take advantage, including U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Dublin, and billionaire activist Tom Steyer, who lives in San Francisco. Such competition presents a problem for Garcetti if he hopes to tap California’s political donor base to fund his maiden run for office above the municipal level.

“California is a great base, but only so many people can claim it,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican campaign consultant based in Sacramento.

Then there’s California’s image with the rest of the nation. Nice place to visit, but people wouldn’t necessarily like their state to be like it. No Californian has ever won the Democratic presidential nomination.

“They look at us as a bunch of wacky, lefty extremists,” said Larry Levine, an L.A. political consultant. “They are wrong, of course, but that doesn’t change things.”

The California problem might even touch his political future. What happens if Garcetti can’t win his home state?

“The main con of Garcetti running is that Garcetti would lose standing for future races if he doesn’t do well in the California primary,” said Marcia Godwin, professor of public administration at the University of La Verne.

Name recognition

He’s a jazz pianist and composer. He’s the son of Gil Garcetti, a two-term L.A. district attorney who prosecuted O.J. Simpson for murder (unsuccessfully, you might have heard). He once hoisted a bottle of beer and uttered an F-bomb at a celebration of a Kings Stanley Cup victory.

Count these as things that L.A. residents know about Eric Garcetti but could come as news to the rest of the country.

Garcetti isn’t among the 17 candidates offered by PredictIt.org for betting on the Democratic race, behind national figures such as Harris, Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who on Dec. 31 became the first major Democrat to form a campaign committee. Garcetti is 16th in the odds posted by legal bookmakers in Great Britain, who give him about a 1 in 30 chance of winning the nomination.

“Outside of Southern California, very few people know who he is,” Pitney said.

That makes some observers think running for president — or even the act of dropping hints about running for president — isn’t about expecting to win.

“There are almost no downsides to exploring options in 2019,” Godwin said. “He gains visibility for the future, plus interest from investors for Los Angeles projects and the Olympics.

“He is unlikely to be a vice presidential candidate, since California is a solid blue state,” Godwin added. “But he could be a future Senate candidate or cabinet member.”

The crazy factor

Garcetti would be a long shot. But so were Barack Obama and Donald Trump. This is an era in which America elected its first African-American president and its first president without experience in political office, and chose its first female major-party nominee in Hillary Clinton. So old calculations might not apply.

“I am sure that he (Garcetti) feels, like most other potential candidates, if Donald Trump can be elected, he can as well,” said Bob Stern, a veteran California political reformer and observer.

Said Renée Van Vechten, a University of Redlands political-science professor: “Garcetti possesses mystique, which is a fancy way of saying, ‘He’s an unknown who has potential.’”